19 February 2009
Predictability of Climate Models
27,000 runs have successfully completed and returned results to climateprediction.net!
The global mean temperatures produced by all of these through the 3 phases have been plotted in the figure below.
Most models maintain a temperature of between 13 and 14 °C
Most models still maintain a temperature of between 13 and 14 °C, however some get colder - these are not stable and the heat flux calculated in phase 1 was not correct to keep the model in balance.
In this phase the models all react very differently to the doubling of carbon dioxide! Most models warm slowly to between 13 and 15 °C over the 15 years. However some get a lot warmer - up to 22°C, whilst others cool.
It shows that the accuracies of long range predictions are poor.