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19 February 2009

Predictability of Climate Models

27,000 runs have successfully completed and returned results to!

The global mean temperatures produced by all of these through the 3 phases have been plotted in the figure below.

Phase 1

Most models maintain a temperature of between 13 and 14 °C

Phase 2

Most models still maintain a temperature of between 13 and 14 °C, however some get colder - these are not stable and the heat flux calculated in phase 1 was not correct to keep the model in balance.

Phase 3

In this phase the models all react very differently to the doubling of carbon dioxide! Most models warm slowly to between 13 and 15 °C over the 15 years. However some get a lot warmer - up to 22°C, whilst others cool.

Comment :
It shows that the accuracies of long range predictions are poor.


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