06 February 2009
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region indicate a gradual weakening of La Niña through February-April 2009, with an eventual transition to ENSO-neutral conditions. Therefore, based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niña is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009.
Expected La Niña impacts during February-April 2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and below-average precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southern United States.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304