26 October 2017

Teknik Informatika Mendukung Pembangunan Bangsa


Abstract Teknik Informatika Mendukung Pembangunan Bangsa Prof.Dr. The Houw Liong Peran Metoda Sains dalam Informatika Metoda Sains yang dikenal sebagai Logico-Empiricism menyatakan bahwa suatu pernyataan adalah benar jika dapat dijelaskan secara logis dari hukum alam yang sudah terbukti kebenarannya dan dapat diverifikasi secara eksperimen/observasi. Dengan metoda ini ilmuwan dapat mengumpulkan pengetahuan yang dapat dipercaya misalnya Hukum Alam seperti Hukum Newton, Hukum Maxwell, dst yang menjadi dasar dari Revolusi Industri I, selanjutnya Perkembangan Fisika Modern yaitu Teori Relativitas Einstein dan Fisika Kuantum menjadi dasar untuk Revolusi Industri II. Dalam Revolusi Industri I, kita menyaksikan bagaimana otot digantikan oleh mesin dan dalam Revolusi Industri II, kita menyaksikan bagaimana otak digantikan oleh komputer. Setiap Negara maju sudah tentu manusianya cerdas (terdidik) sehingga mampu mengembangkan sains dan teknologi (IPTEK), khususnya Teknik Informatika yang berbasis Artificial Intelligence. Sehingga Robot Inteligens dapat mengenal Penciptanya ? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320618291_Peran_Informatika_dalam_Mendukung_Pembengunan_Bangsa_sub_titel_Kesadaran_Robot_Inteligens

02 October 2017

Contribution of Cosmic Ray Flux to Warming

On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget
Nir J. Shaviv

Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous, the Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF, and the radiative budget, F, under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate driver, the sensitivity to variations in the globally averaged relative change in the tropospheric ionization I script is consistently fitted with μ ≡ − (dT global /d I script) ≈ 7.5 ± 2°K. Additionally, the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes is λ ≡ dT global /dF = 0.35 ± 0.09°KW−1m2, at the current temperature, while its temperature derivative is undetectable with (dλ/dT)0 = −0.01 ± 0.04 m2W−1. If the observed CRF/climate link is ignored, the best sensitivity obtained is λ = 0.54 ± 0.12°KW−1m2 and (dλ/dT)0 = −0.02 ± 0.05 m2W−1. Note that this analysis assumes that different climate conditions can be described with at most a linear function of T; however, the exact sensitivity probably depends on various additional factors. Moreover, λ was mostly obtained through comparison of climate states notably different from each other, and thus only describes an average sensitivity. Subject to the above caveats and those described in the text, the CRF/climate link therefore implies that the increased solar luminosity and reduced CRF over the previous century should have contributed a warming of 0.47 ± 0.19°K, while the rest should be mainly attributed to anthropogenic causes. Without any effect of cosmic rays, the increase in solar luminosity would correspond to an increased temperature of 0.16 ± 0.04°K.

Received 27 October 2004; accepted 1 June 2005; published 23 August 2005.

Citation: Shaviv, N. J. (2005), On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A08105, doi:10.1029/2004JA010866.

The Great Debate: ORIGINS OF THE FUTURE (OFFICIAL) - (Part 1/2)