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02 October 2017

Contribution of Cosmic Ray Flux to Warming

On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget
Nir J. Shaviv

Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous, the Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF, and the radiative budget, F, under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate driver, the sensitivity to variations in the globally averaged relative change in the tropospheric ionization I script is consistently fitted with μ ≡ − (dT global /d I script) ≈ 7.5 ± 2°K. Additionally, the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes is λ ≡ dT global /dF = 0.35 ± 0.09°KW−1m2, at the current temperature, while its temperature derivative is undetectable with (dλ/dT)0 = −0.01 ± 0.04 m2W−1. If the observed CRF/climate link is ignored, the best sensitivity obtained is λ = 0.54 ± 0.12°KW−1m2 and (dλ/dT)0 = −0.02 ± 0.05 m2W−1. Note that this analysis assumes that different climate conditions can be described with at most a linear function of T; however, the exact sensitivity probably depends on various additional factors. Moreover, λ was mostly obtained through comparison of climate states notably different from each other, and thus only describes an average sensitivity. Subject to the above caveats and those described in the text, the CRF/climate link therefore implies that the increased solar luminosity and reduced CRF over the previous century should have contributed a warming of 0.47 ± 0.19°K, while the rest should be mainly attributed to anthropogenic causes. Without any effect of cosmic rays, the increase in solar luminosity would correspond to an increased temperature of 0.16 ± 0.04°K.

Received 27 October 2004; accepted 1 June 2005; published 23 August 2005.

Citation: Shaviv, N. J. (2005), On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A08105, doi:10.1029/2004JA010866.

The Great Debate: ORIGINS OF THE FUTURE (OFFICIAL) - (Part 1/2)

16 September 2017

Fisika Komputasi (Integrated Approach to Scences)

Abstract Minggu 1 : =========================================================================================================================================================== Central concept of science ===================================================================================================== T1 Science as a way of knowing Science is a way of asking and answering question about the physical universe Why study science?, the scientific method, biodiversity, periodic table, blood circulation, pseudoscience, =========================================================== Minggu 2. Basic principle and fundamental concept ============================================================================================== T2 The Ordered Universe Newton’s law of motion and gravity predict the behavior of object on Earth and in space Stonehenge, Ancient astronauts, the birth of modern astronomy, the birth of mechanics, speed, velocity, acceleration, the universal law of motion, momentum, inertial guidance system, the universal force of gravity ===================================================================== Minggu 3. =============================================================T3 Energy ====================================================================== Energy are interchangeable and the total amount of energy is conserved in an isolated system horsepower, form of energy, discovering the nature of energy, the interchangeability of energy, energy for life, the first law of thermodynamics, diet and calories, earth’s age, fossil fuels ======================================================================================================================================= Minggu 4. ==================================================================================================================================== T4 Heat & 2nd Law of Thermodynamics ====================================================================================================================== Heat is a form of energy that flows from warmer to cooler objects heat and temperature, thermometers, heat transfer, home insulation, animal insulation, radiation, temperature regulation, the second law of thermodynamics, efficiency, the heat death of the universe, consequences of the second law, aging ============================================================================================================================================== Minggu 5 : =================================================================================================================================== T5 Electricity & Magnetism ===================================================================================================== Electricity and magnetism are two different aspects of one force – the electromagnetic force Electrostatic, electrical charges, electrical field, magnetic navigation, life’s electrical force, the propagation and nerve signals, electromagnet, electric motors, magnetic resonance, electrical effects from magnetism, Maxwell’s equation ================================================================================================ =====Minggu 6 ================================================================================================================================ T6 Waves and Electromagnetic Radiation Whenever an electrically charged object is accelerated, it produces electromagnetic radiation-waves of energy that travel at the speed of light The nature of waves, the sound of music, use of sound by animals (interference), the electromagnetic wave, the ether, the electromagnetic spectrum, AM & FM radio transmission, microwave ovens, UV & X-Rays, gamma rays ================================================================================================= ============================================ Minggu 7: ==================================================================================================================================== Relativity and Quantum Mechanics ================================================================================================= T7 Albert Einstein and the theory of Relativity All observers, no matter what their frame of reference, see the same laws of nature Frame of reference, Einstein and the street car, special relativity, how important is relativity?, Space travel and aging, general relativity, was Newton wrong? ============================================================================================================================================== Minggu 8 ================================================================================================== T9 Quantum Mechanics At the subatomic scale, everything is quantized. Any measurement at the scale significantly alters the object being measured The world of the very small, uncertainty in the Newtonian world, probabilities, wave-particle duality, the photoelectric effect, the CAT Scan, wave-particle duality and the Bohr atom, a famous interchange, quantum entanglement, uncertainty in human being ===================================================================================================00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 =============================================================================================================================== Minggu 9. =============================================================================================================================================== The Atom and the Atomic Structure of Matter ================================================================================================= T8 The Atom All of the matter around us is made of atoms, the chemical building block of our world The smallest pieces, the structure of atom, when matter meet light, spectroscopy, spectra of life’s chemical reaction, the story of helium, the laser, the periodic table of elements, what do atoms ”look like”? ============================================================================================================================================== Minggu 10 ================================================================================================= T10 Atoms in Combination: The Chemical Bond Atoms bind together in chemical reactions by the rearrangement of electrons Electron shells, periodic table and chemical bonds, types of chemical bonds, state of matter, liquid crystal and calculator, the discovery of nylon, chemical reaction and the formation of chemical bonds, antacids, refining petroleum, the clotting of blood, magnetic overthrow ============================================================================================================================================== Minggu 11 ================================================================================================= T11 Materials and their Properties A material’s properties result from its constituent atoms and the arrangements of chemicals bond that hold those atoms together. Materials and the modern world, the strengths of materials, electrical properties, searching of new superconductors, magnetic properties, microchips and the information revolution, photovoltaic and the solar energy, the computer and the brain, in pixels and in health ============================================================================================================================================== Minggu 12 ============================================================================================= Nucleus and Subatomic Particles T12 The Nucleus of the Atom Nuclear energy depends on the conversion of mass into energy Explosive energy, mass and energy, the organization of the nucleus, radioactivity, Becquerel and Curie, half-life, radiometric dating decay chain, nuclear weapons, super heavy elements, thermonuclear squeeze ======================================================================================================================== Minggu 13 ================================================================================================= T13 The Ultimate Structure of Matter All matter is made of quarks and lepton, which are the most fundamental building blocks of the universe that we know The building block of matter, discovery of elementary particle, particle accelerator, accelerator in medicine, leptons, hadrons, antimatter, the discovery of antimatter, quarks, quarks and leptons, quarks confinement, the four fundamental forces, string theories ========================================================================================================================================================== 1 Reference (.Buku Acuan) ======================================================================================================= ===I. A. Beiser, The Houw Liong : Konsep Fisika Modern, Ed.4, Erlangga, 1990 ================================================================================================ II. “The Sciences: An Integrated Approach”, 5th Ed., James Trefill & R.M. Hazen, John Wiley & Sons. ========================================================================================================================================================== 2. Backgrounds (Latar Belakang) ================================================================================================ • Kurikulum tradisional bidang sain di sebagian besar universitas gagal memberikan pendidikan basic science yang diperlukan untuk memahami beberapa isu dalam bidang sain dan teknologi yang berkembang di masyarakat, ========================================================== ============ 3. Goals (Tujuan) =============================================================================================== • Providing education for people who will not be scientist but who need some knowledge of science to function as citizens. ============================ =========== 4. Outcome (Hasil) ============================================================================================== • Mahasiswa benar-benar memahami bahwa dalam real life, tidak ada pengkotakan antara sain, teknologi, seni dan bisnis. =========================================================================================================================================================== 5. Approach (Pendekatan): ============================================================================================== • This course encompasses physics, chemistry, biology, earth science, astronomy, and emphasize general principle and their application to real world situation rather than esoteric detail. ================================================================================================ • The emphasis of the course is the development of a student’s understanding of the scientific process - as opposed to just the accumulation of scientific facts, and to elucidate the historical significance of key principles and underscores the integrated nature of scientific knowledge.

10 February 2017

Predicon and Anomaly Detecon of Rainfall for Planng Time Based On Evolving Neural Network in Soreang, Bandung

Prediction and Anomaly Detection of Rainfall for Planting Time Based On Evolving Neural Network in Soreang, Bandung
Gunawansyah ;
Supervisor : Prof Dr. The How Liong ; Co-Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Adiwijaya ;
Abstract :
As an agricultural country and located around the equator line, Indonesia geographical position between two continents and oceans is very sensitive to regional and global atmospheric circulations as sunspot, cosmic rays, Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and Southern Oscillation Index(SOI). The disruption of one circulation can affect climate and weather. Extreme anomaly climate is very influential in the agriculture field because it can decrease growing area, production and productivity of food crops. In this research, rainfall prediction has been conducted using Evolving Neural Network (ENN) and completed with anomaly detection for finding the best starting time for planting, so the risk of loss due to rainfall anomalies can be minimized because farmers can adjust the planting starting time with the change of the rainfall and the attention to anomalies that occur during the growing seasons. From three scenarios, one hidden layer in Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture was sufficient and ENN had good performance in different dataset. Rainfall prediction result used all data (January-December) from 1999-2013 had the accuracy of 84.6%, 66.02% for dry season (April-September) and 79.7% for wet season (October-March). Based on prediction and anomaly detection in this research, in Soreang the first week of January, April and October 2014 were recommended for the starting time of planting in 2014. Keywords: Rainfall, Prediction, Evolving Neural Network, Genetic Algorithm Artificial Neural Network, Anomaly Detection