14 February 2009
a reliable precursor
Published in Science and Utopya 64, page 53~57, October 1999 (in Turkish)
On August 17, the 7.4 Turkey earthquake occurred. It is the only one larger than 6.9 in the west area from Sri Lanka since May 11, 1997. Its low probability suggests that the hometown of that cloud should be in Turkey. This example tells us that to detect the origin of the cloud, we have a tough job to do.
To prevent a large earthquake, I suggest Turkish people to make an hourly surface wind velocity distribution, and a greatly magnified hourly satellite image, or to detect the vapor directly. I believe that earthquake clouds are reliable for short term prediction, and hope that Turkish people would like this paper.
I thank the USGS, Two "jpg" web pages of uk, Caltech libraries, Dr. Moore, G. and three Caltech Ph.D. students Shou, W.Y., Harrington, D. and Wang, A. S.
References and Notes
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 Shi, H.X. & Cai, Z.H. Case examples of peculiar phenomena of subsurface fluid behavior observed in China preceding earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica 2, No.4, 425-429 (1980).
 Zhang, D.Y. & Zhao, G.M. Anomalous variations in oil wells distributed in the Bohai bay oil field before and after the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Acta Seismologica Sinica 5, No.3, 360-369 (1983).
 Giang, Z. J. et cl. An experimental study of temperature increasing mechanism of satellitic thermo-infrared. Acta Seismologica Sinica 19, No. 2, 197-201 (1997).
 Bolt, B.A. Stimulation of earthquakes by water. Earthquakes, 135-139 (W.H. Freeman and Company, New York, 1988).
 Kirby, S.H & McCormick, J.W. Inelastic properties of rocks and minerals: strength and rheology. Practical Handbook of Physical Properties of Rocks and Minerals, 179-185 (ed. Carmichael, R.S., CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 1990).
 Tang, X. Anomalous meteorology. A General History of Earthquake Study in China, 49-84 (Science Press, Beijing, 1988, in English).
Fig. 2 Image 199907161200.jpg The 7.4 Turkey earthquake cloud.
* All predictions are listed on Web Site: http://members.xoom.com/EQPrediction/ (Before)and http://quake.exit.com (Now)