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14 February 2009

Earthquake Clouds



Earthquake Clouds
a reliable precursor

Zhonghao Shou

Published in Science and Utopya 64, page 53~57, October 1999 (in Turkish)
On August 17, the 7.4 Turkey earthquake occurred. It is the only one larger than 6.9 in the west area from Sri Lanka since May 11, 1997. Its low probability suggests that the hometown of that cloud should be in Turkey. This example tells us that to detect the origin of the cloud, we have a tough job to do.

To prevent a large earthquake, I suggest Turkish people to make an hourly surface wind velocity distribution, and a greatly magnified hourly satellite image, or to detect the vapor directly. I believe that earthquake clouds are reliable for short term prediction, and hope that Turkish people would like this paper.


Acknowledgments.
I thank the USGS, Two "jpg" web pages of uk, Caltech libraries, Dr. Moore, G. and three Caltech Ph.D. students Shou, W.Y., Harrington, D. and Wang, A. S.


References and Notes
[1] Li, D.J. Earthquake Clouds, 148-150 (Xue Lin Public Store, Shanghai, China, 1982).

[2] Dunbar, P.K., Lockridge, P.A. & Whiteside, L.S. World Data Center A for Solid Earth Geophysics, 146 (National Geophysical Data Center, Colorado, 1992).

[3] Zhou, H.L. Moment magnitudes of historical earthquakes in China. Earthquake Research in China 1, No. 3, 347-360 (1987).

[4] Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Prediction of the Haicheng earthquake. Eos 58, 236-272 (1977).

[5] Spray, J.G. A physical basis for the frictional melting of some rock-forming minerals. Tectonophysics 204, 205-221 (1992).

[6] Swanson, M.T. Fault structure, wear mechanisms and rupture processes in pseudotachylyte generation. Tectonophysics 204, 223-242 (1992).

[7] Koch, N. & Masch, L. Formation of Alpine mylonites and pseudotachylytes at the base of the Silvretta nappe, Eastern Alps. Tectonophysics 204, 289-306 (1992).

[8] Techmer, K.S., Ahrendt, H. & Weber, K. The development of pseudotachylyte in the Ivrea-Verbano zone of the Italian Alps. Tectonophysics 204, 307-322 (1992).

[9] Shi, H. X., Cai, Z.H. & Gao, M.X. Anomalous migration of shallow groundwater and gases in the Beijing region and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica 2, No.1, 55-64 (1980).

[10] Yang, C.S. Temporal and spatial distribution of anomalous ground water changes before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica 4, No.1, 84-89 (1982).

[11] Glowacka, E. & Nava, F. A. Major earthquakes in Mexicali Valley, Mexico, and fluid extraction at Cerro Prieto geothermal field. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86, No.1A , 93-105 (1996).

[12] Haas, J.L.Jr. The effect of salinity on the maximum thermal gradient of a hydrothermal system at hydrostatic pressure. Eco. Geol. 66, 940-946 (1971).

[13] Chandrasekharam, D. Ateam emanation due to seismic pumping, Killari, Maharashtra. Geol. Surv. Ind. Spl. Pub. No.27, 229-233 (1995).

[14] Lane, T. & Waag, C. Ground-water eruptions in the Chilly Buttes area, Central Idaho. Special Publications 91, 19 (1985).

[15] Shi, H.X. & Cai, Z.H. Case examples of peculiar phenomena of subsurface fluid behavior observed in China preceding earthquakes. Acta Seismologica Sinica 2, No.4, 425-429 (1980).

[16] Zhang, D.Y. & Zhao, G.M. Anomalous variations in oil wells distributed in the Bohai bay oil field before and after the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Acta Seismologica Sinica 5, No.3, 360-369 (1983).

[17] Giang, Z. J. et cl. An experimental study of temperature increasing mechanism of satellitic thermo-infrared. Acta Seismologica Sinica 19, No. 2, 197-201 (1997).

[18] Bolt, B.A. Stimulation of earthquakes by water. Earthquakes, 135-139 (W.H. Freeman and Company, New York, 1988).

[19] Kirby, S.H & McCormick, J.W. Inelastic properties of rocks and minerals: strength and rheology. Practical Handbook of Physical Properties of Rocks and Minerals, 179-185 (ed. Carmichael, R.S., CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 1990).

[20] Tang, X. Anomalous meteorology. A General History of Earthquake Study in China, 49-84 (Science Press, Beijing, 1988, in English).

Fig. 2 Image 199907161200.jpg The 7.4 Turkey earthquake cloud.


* All predictions are listed on Web Site: http://members.xoom.com/EQPrediction/ (Before)and http://quake.exit.com (Now)

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