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09 January 2009

Scientists Predict Big Sunspot Cycle Coming

Solar scientists said Monday the next sunspot cycle could be 30 percent to 50 percent stronger than the last one, and it could begin up to a year later than expected – although other scientists dispute the timing prediction.

The peak of the cycle, called the Solar Maximum, generates more frequent magnetic storms and ejections of energetic particles that can slow satellite orbits - thereby interfering with global navigation – as well as disrupt communications and bring down power systems.

During a telephone briefing for reporters Monday, the scientists said they have great confidence in the forecast, because their model has matched the historical data from the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 percent accuracy.

Their Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. They said they expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about six months to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start.Cycle 24 is expected to reach its peak sometime in 2012.

Both groups said the model should help them to forecast sunspot activity for two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Scientists_Predict_Big_Sunspot_Cycle_Coming.html

Di Indonesia mungkin akan terkena dampak sekunder, dari kegagalan sistem komunikasi dan navigasi dan juga dampak terhadap cuaca yang akan mengakibatkan banjir besar di Jakarta dan di berbagai tempat.

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