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03 January 2009

Regional Climate Models in Indonesia

Sains, Filsafat Sains dan Teknologi

Regional Weather/Climate Models and Weather Modification in Indonesia

and Terrestrial Effect of Solar Activity

The Houw Liong, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, ITB

R. Gernowo, Faculty of Earth Science and Mineral Technology, ITB

P.M. Siregar, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB

F.H. Widodo, Weather Modification Unit, BPPT

Abstract

The current study presents the development of forecasting using numerical weather model ( MM5 and WRF) , and numerical climate model (GCM and DARLAM) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for forecasting extreme weather/climate in Indonesia based on sunspot number time series .

Case study will be applied in Jabodetabek region and the impact to severe floods of Ciliwung river . The dynamics of Ciliwung river can be studied by system dynamics.

We study also weather modification to reduce negative impacts of extreme weather. Furthermore we discuss possibility of using ground based generator to fill ground water in transition seasons and to reduce severe floods.

We will discuss also the terrestrial effect of solar activity on climate, power system and communication system when maximum solar activity occur.

Keywords : numerical weather/climate model, ANFIS, weather modification, ground based generator, terrestrial effect of solar activity.

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