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20 August 2009

Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change

Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change

Nicola Scafettaa,

aDepartment of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA


Received 4 March 2009; revised 16 July 2009; accepted 23 July 2009. Available online 3 August 2009.

Abstract

The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: and or . Since 1980 the solar contribution to climate change is uncertain because of the severe uncertainty of the total solar irradiance satellite composites. The sun may have caused from a slight cooling, if PMOD TSI composite is used, to a significant warming (up to 65% of the total observed warming) if ACRIM, or other TSI composites are used. The model is calibrated only on the empirical 11-year solar cycle signature on the instrumental global surface temperature since 1980. The model reconstructs the major temperature patterns covering 400 years of solar induced temperature changes, as shown in recent paleoclimate global temperature records.

Keywords: Solar variability; Climate change; Solar-terrestrial link

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