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21 July 2009

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Wavelet Analysis of Asymmetric Hemispheric Sunspot Number

Proceedings of The 9th Asian-Pacific Regional IAU Meeting 2005, 28–29 (2005)

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Based on Wavelet Analysis of Asymmetric Hemispheric Sunspot Number
T. Djamaluddin
National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN), Bandung, Indonesia

ABSTRACT
Djamaluddin (2003, Proc. ISCS 2003, ESA SP-535, p. 83) proposed a new method of solar activity prediction from reconstruction of wavelet analysis. That method still used precursor analysis to predict the peak of cycle. Recently it is found that separate wavelet analysis of asymmetric hemispheric sunspot number gives a better result in predicting the shape of the next cycle, even more than one cycle ahead. The improved method does not use the precursor analysis to predict the peak of cycle, instead purely from wavelet analysis, i.e. the relationship between length-of-cycle and the maximum amplitude. Reconstruction of the cycle 21 is used to predict cycle 22 and 23 with good results, especially for the current cycle 23. The prediction is prolonged to cycle 24.
The cycle 24 is also predicted from the reconstruction of cycle 22. Comparison of those predictions of cycle 24 will be discussed.

Key words: prediction – solar cycle – wavelet – sunspot number

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