Aplikasi Business dan Pemerintahan dengan Metoda Sistem Dinamis

Aplikasi Business dan Pemerintahan dengan Metoda Sistem Dinamis
The Houw Liong dan Fajri Umbara

Abstrak
Metoda system dinamis dapat dipakai untuk memprediksi deret waktu yang saling berkaitan misalnya deret waktu populasi, hasil pertanian, hasil industry, polusi dan sumber alam. Hal ini sangat penting untuk pengambil keputusan untuk menentukan kebijakan yang bisa menentukan nasib manusia di suatu negara. Penduduk Indonesia 240 000 000 dan diprediksi bahwa dalam tahun 2040 penduduknya akan mencapai 480 000 000. Apakah Indonesia dapat memacu hasil pertanian dan industry sehingga penduduknya tiadak kekurangan sandang pangan dan papan (perumahan) dengan mengingat bahwa sumber alam akan makin sedikit, sedangkan polusi juga akan meningkat menjadi dua kali lipat dari polusi sekarang ? Tanpa kebijakan yang tepat Indonesia akan mengalami krisis di segala bidang. Deret waktu , GDP (Gross National Product),Hutang Luar Negeri ( External Debt), Produksi Energi ( Energy Production), dan Pemakaian Energi (Energy Use) dapat diggunakan untuk memprediksi krisis ekonomi. Dalam makalah ini persamaan diferensial yang menyatakan saling kebergantungan antara deret waktu tsb akan diuraikan menjadi polynomial orde 2, kemudian dipecahkan dengan menggunakan algoritma genetik. Hasilnya menyatakan bahwa pemerintahan Suharto bisa menunda krisis ekonomi yang besar dengan memperbesar hutang luar negeri , demikian juga pemerintahan SBY dapat menunda krisis ekonomi yang besar dengan memperbesar hutang luar negeri sehingga mencapai sekitar 30% dari GDP. Banyak ahli ekonomi berpendapat bahwa hal tsb sudah membahayakan , karena sebagian besar pendapatan negara sudah dipakai untuk membayar hutang, sehingga negara tsb menuju kebangkrutan.
Referensi:

http://sansteknologi.blogspot.com/2014/04/long-term-predictions-of-economic.html

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Long Term Predictions of Economic Crisis in Indonesia Using System Dynamic Model Optimized by Adaptive Genetic Algorithm

Fajri Umbara, Houw Liong The, Deni Saepudin
ABSTRACT Indonesia experienced economic crisis in 1998 and caused by various reasons. One of the reasons was the weakened value of rupiahs to US dollars. Because of this, investors did not believe rupiahs anymore. This condition also made many private companies in our country collapse caused by highest value of external debt. The fact; however, Indonesia was survived from this crisis. This study attempted to predict in order to avoid economic crisis in Indonesia using monetary crisis and energy crisis prediction as earlier warning for economic crisis. This studied applied a model called System Dynamic Model to develop a model of Indonesian Economic conditions. The data were taken from worldbank and the factors are GDP, External Debt as factors for indicate monetary crisis, and Energy Production and Energy Use as factors to indicate energy crisis. This model was build for 100 years; it is from 1971 until 2070. This study was based on report of "Limit to Growth". Since the system dynamic model applied coefficients called dynamic coefficients, then the method called Adaptive Genetic Algorithm was applied to find the solutions. This adaptive behavior from the genetic algorithm applied fuzzy system. The experiments show that the MAPE value was ranging from 0.08 - 0.22 and accuracy was ranging from 77% - 95% for creating models from historical data. This result showed that the algorithm was capable to find the solutions. From developed model shows that the policy in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono reign succeed to avoid monetary crisis for 10 - 30 years than policy before Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono reign, meanwhile both policies cannot avoid energy crisis. The government or the future president must create policies about utilization of alternative energy.

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THE PREDICTION OF DENGUE HAEMORRAGIC FEVER (DHF) IN CIMAHI USING HYBRID GENETIC ALGORITHM AND FUZZY LOGIC

International Conference on Informatics and Computational Intelligence, Bandung, 2011

THE PREDICTION OF DENGUE HAEMORRAGIC FEVER (DHF) IN CIMAHI USING HYBRID GENETIC ALGORITHM AND FUZZY LOGIC

Fhira Nhita, ST1, Prof.Thee Houw Liong2, Shaufiah, MT3

1,3 Informatics Program Study in Telkom Institute of Technology 2Bandung Institute of Technology 1fhiranhita@yahoo.com, 2houwthee@yahoo.co.id, 3shaufiah@gmail.com

Abstrak.

Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) merupakan masalah nasional di bidang kesehatan. Setiap tahun angka kesakitan DBD masih tinggi. Khususnya di Cimahi, salah satu kota di provinsi Jawa Barat dimana angka kesakitan (Incidence Rate) tahun 2005 hingga 2010 di atas standar yang ditentukan Departemen Kesehatan RI.

Banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi kejadian DBD, antara lain iklim dan perilaku hidup bersih dan sehat (PHBS). Oleh karena itu, dalam penelitian ini, dibangun Sistem Prediksi demam berdarah yang dikaitkan dengan iklim, yang diharapkan bisa membantu memberikan informasi bagi Departemen Kesehatan tentang prediksi resiko DBD di tahun yang akan datang, sehingga Departemen Kesehatan dapat mengambil langkah preventif untuk mengurangi angka kesakitan DBD.

Sistem Prediksi yang dibangun dengan hybrid algorithm yaitu Algoritma Genetika dan Fuzzy Logic mampu menghasilkan akurasi testing 100% dalam memprediksi kondisi DBD di 6 bulan pertama pada tahun 2009 dan 2010 di kecamatan Cimahi Utara dan Cimahi Tengah. Sedangkan pada Cimahi Selatan diperoleh hasil prediksi 6 bulan pertama di tahun 2009 sebesar 100% tetapi pada tahun 2010 terjadi penurunan akurasi.

Kata kunci: demam berdarah, cimahi, algoritma genetika, logika fuzzy, system prediksi

Abstract

The incidence of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a national health problem in Indonesia. Every year dengue morbidity is still high. Particularly in Cimahi, one of the city in West Java province where the morbidity rate (Incidence Rate) 2005 to 2010 in the above national standard. Many factors can affect the incidence of dengue, among others, climate and living behavioral. Therefore, the development of DHF Prediction System which is associated with a climate that is expected to help provide information for the Department of Health about dengue risk prediction in the coming year, so the Health Ministry can take preventive action to reduce morbidity of DHF. The Prediction System that was built with a hybrid algorithm which Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Logic is able to obtain 100% testing accuracy in predicting the condition of dengue in the first 6 months in 2009 and 2010 in North Cimahi and Central Cimahi. While in South Cimahi, the prediction results obtained in the first 6 months of 2009 amounted to 100% but in 2010 a decline in accuracy.